Plan Bay Area 2040 Final Preferred Scenario Approved: Overview

Adoption Marks Major Milestone for Region's Long-range Planning Efforts
Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Plan Bay Area 2040, an update to the region’s long-range transportation and land use plan, has marked a major milestone with the adoption of the Final Preferred Scenario by the MTC Commission and ABAG Executive Board. The Preferred Scenario is a critical component of the Plan, providing a roadmap for accommodating projected household and employment growth in the nine-county Bay Area by 2040 as well as a transportation investment strategy for the region.

The Preferred Scenario details how the region can achieve several outcomes that are essential to the success of Plan Bay Area 2040 and the region's long-range transportation and land use planning efforts. It: 

  • Lays out where and how the region can accommodate 820,000 new projected households between now and 2040
  • Lays out where and how the region can accommodate 1.3 million new projected jobs between now and 2040
  • Lays out a regional transportation investment strategy given expected revenues from federal, state, regional and local sources over the next 24 years
  • Does all of the above in compliance with SB 375, the state’s sustainable communities strategy law, which integrates land use and transportation planning and mandates that the long-range plan reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles and provide adequate housing for the region’s 24-year projected population growth

MTC and ABAG presented a draft version of the Scenario to local jurisdictions and stakeholders in September. Feedback was received in October and followed by 20 staff-to-staff meetings with individual cities, nine county-level meetings with Planning directors, as well as meetings with business, environmental, and equity organizations to discuss issues and concerns. 

The Preferred Scenario will now undergo an environmental assessment under the California Environmental Quality Act. The Draft Environmental Impact Report and Draft Plan document will be released in Spring 2017. Final adoption of Plan Bay Area 2040 is expected by mid-2017.

Given current and expected future trends, MTC/ABAG project that by 2040 the region will grow by 820,000 households, from 2.6 million in 2010 to 3.4 million in 2040. Employment is expected to grow by 1.3 million, from 3.4 million jobs in 2010 to 4.7 million jobs in 2040. 

An AC Transit bus on Telegraph Avenue

Over the next 24 years, the region can expect to have approximately $303 billion in revenues available for its transportation needs.

The Preferred Scenario has a number of performance targets to gauge its effectiveness.

The Preferred Scenario will next undergo an environmental assessment under CEQA to inform decision-makers, responsible and trustee agencies, and Bay Area residents of the range of potential environmental impacts that could result from its implementation.

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